The discourse of Mexico's President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), regarding the country's main institutions has sparked an intense debate about the weight of his relationship and potential influence on Mexican democracy. Recently, experts debated this matter during an online panel organized by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, exploring the various ways AMLO's administration is shaping democracy in Mexico.
The panel featured two distinguished speakers offering different perspectives on the key elements shaping Mexican democracy under AMLO's leadership. Viridiana Ríos is a renowned Mexican academic and journalist known for her contributions to newspapers like El País and Milenio, and the author of the book "Not Normal: The rigged game that fuels Mexican inequality and how to change it." And, Gustavo Flores Macías, Associate Vice Provost for International Affairs and Professor of Government and Public Policy at Cornell University, focuses on research about political and economic development in Latin America.
Moderation was handled by Steven Levitsky, a Government Professor at Harvard University and Director of the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies. His research focuses on democratization, authoritarianism, political parties, institutions, and vested powers, with a specific lens on Latin America.
Photo: Gustavo Flores Macías
Gustavo, in his reflections, expressed concern about the state of democracy in the country, highlighting the growing trend towards what he termed "authoritarianism through democratic means." This represents a paradox, as it fails to reconcile democratic principles with the perceived growth of authoritarian spaces increasingly present in Mexico.
As evidence, Gustavo cited the widespread acceptance among the population of militarization, detailing examples from various national surveys where the majority expressed support. For instance, in 2019, approximately 75% of the population favored the creation of the National Guard, and by 2020, 80% supported the armed forces' role in national law enforcement. Even in October 2022, around 62% supported the armed forces' presence in national order until 2028, backing the proposal to integrate the National Guard into SEDENA, approved by Congress.
Gustavo emphasized that despite these statistics, the Mexican Constitution unequivocally instructs the military to remain in barracks, especially in times of peace.
From Gustavo's perspective, these data reflect significant popular support for AMLO as President to take measures that deeply impact the country's democratic structure. They also underscore the role the President has played in granting increasing power to the armed forces, which, in his opinion, erodes the quality of the country's democracy.
Furthermore, Gustavo raised concerns that this militaristic trend poses risks to the future of democracy, including the possibility of having elections free from military influence and interruptions of constitutional order led by the army.
Ultimately, Gustavo prompted reflection on the long-term risks these measures entail and questioned their reversibility. He argued that preserving a robust democracy free from military interference is imperative for Mexico's future. He added that militarization, seen as a short-term solution to security issues, could become a systemic problem undermining the very pillars of democracy. Hence, he highlighted the need for critical oversight and collective reflection to ensure a free and democratic political future for Mexico.
Photograph: Viridiana Ríos
On the other hand, Viridiana Ríos highlighted AMLO's popularity, largely stemming from his labor reforms and substantial investments in infrastructure in the southern region of the country, including the Tren Maya project and hotel development in that area. However, she also mentioned that this focus has led to budget cuts in other fundamental institutions, raising concerns about resource allocation. This stark contrast in governance style compared to his predecessor distinctly influences the country's democracy.
Moreover, Viridiana underscored, backed by data, that despite concerns, the majority of Mexicans trust AMLO's agenda to lead the country. This is evidenced by the evolution of public opinion throughout his tenure, showcasing doubled citizen trust in the Federal Government, as well as increased satisfaction with democracy. She also highlighted that citizens' perception of the absence of corruption in the Federal Government has tripled. She even mentioned that on issues like security, Mexican citizens report feeling safer than at any other time in the last decade.
However, Viridiana acknowledged certain potentially antidemocratic tendencies in AMLO's administration. Nevertheless, she mentioned that, from her standpoint, many of these tendencies are exaggerated, particularly in how international public opinion is shaped.
Additionally, she commented that López Obrador's presidency continues to fuel debates and concerns about its impact on Mexican democracy. Thus, the struggle between populism, trust in institutions, and governmental decisions will shape the country's democratic future.
In an optimistic tone, she expressed hope for Mexico's democracy. She observed that recent events in the early electoral campaigns towards the 2024 elections demonstrate that the country will have fair and significant competition, showcasing the strength of Mexican democratic institutions.
This article was written by Paulina González Cussi and Analu Arrieta Martínez, DRCLAS Mexico Team.